Mehrheit von Palaestinensern gegen Friedensverhandlungen


Das ist das klare Erebnis der juengsten Umfrage des Palestinian Center for Public Opinion

    • The Peace Negotiations(62.3%) of the Palestinian public oppose going back to the peace talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis under the prevailing conditions, whilst only (22.3%) of the respondents support that and (15.4%) declined to answer the corresponding question.

(…)

    • The Palestinian Uprising (Intifada)Responding to the question:”According to your opinion, is what happening now in the West Bank and East Jerusalem are fleeting confrontations, a popular stir or a third Intifada ?”,(14.8%) said:”These are fleeting confrontations”, (49.4%) said:”a popular stir as an onset of a third Intifada”, (32.2%) said:”It’s a third Intifada” and (3.6%) said:”I don’t know”.Nature of the Uprising (Intifada)Regarding the question:”Supposedly, a third uprising (intifada) erupts; would you be in favor of a peaceful popular uprising (intifada) or in favor of a violent one ?”, (29.9%) of the respondents said:”in favor of a peaceful, non-violent, popular uprising”, (42.1%) are “in favor of a violent uprising”, (27.8%) said:”not in favor of either of them”, and (0.2%) answered:”I don’t know”.

      Supporting the Intifada

      The poll results have revealed that (50.4%) of the Palestinian people support the outbreak of a third intifada, while (35.2%) oppose that and (14.4%) declined to answer the relevant question.

(…)

  • A Comparison between the Poll Results of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip:
  • The rate of the respondents, who opposed the outbreak of a third intifada in Gaza, was (27.4%), while those in the West Bank were at (40.2%). Conversely, the rate of those in favor of an outbreak of a third intifada in Gaza Strip came at (66.2%), against (40.2%) in the West Bank.
  1. The poll results on the return to the peace negotiations with Israel revealed in Gaza Strip a rate of (37.7%) whilst in the West Bank only (12.3%)
  1. The rates of the respondents, who aren’t in favor of either a peaceful uprising, or a violent one, were in the West Bank (35.5%) and in Gaza Strip (16.2%).
  1. The rates of those respondents, who are calling for the resignation of the President, were (55%) in Gaza Strip against (43.1%) in the West Bank.
  1. Regarding the reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, (50.2%) in Gaza Strip are pessimistic against (34.5%) in the West Bank.
  1. And in respect of the statement of President Mahmoud Abbas that the leadership aims to achieve a political solution with peaceful terms, not with something else, the rate of its supporters in Gaza Strip was (39.6%) against (20.4%) in the West Bank.

Die Befragten im Gazastreifen sind sehr fuer eine 3. Intifada, wohl wissend, dass die Gewalt nicht von ihnen, sondern von den Palaestinensern im Westjordanland ausgehen muesste. Und die Folgen dafuer haetten auch ueberwiegend die Zivilisten in der Westbank zu tragen. So machen Aufstaende Spass! Die Bevoelkerung im Westjordanland weiss, dass sie mehr zu verlieren hat und ist daher zurueckhaltender.

Bemerkenswert ist, dass gleichzeitig die Unterstuetzung fuer „Friedensverhandlungen“ im Gazastreifen deutlich hoeher ausfaellt als im Westjordanland. Das macht nur dann Sinn, wenn wir davon ausgehen, dass auch den Palaestinensern klar ist, dass „Friedens“-Verhandlungen ueblicherweise den Auftakt zum naechsten gewaltsamen Konflikt darstellen.

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Was wollen die Palaestinenser?


Seit 2007 habe ich immer wieder mal ueber palaestinensische Umfragen geschrieben, aus denen hervorgeht, dass das palaestinesische Kollektiv Israel nach wie vor nicht akzeptieren kann und Gewalt gegen israelische Zivilisten befuerwortet.

Daniel Polisar hat die Umfragen der verschiedenen pal. Umfrageinstitute seit 1994 systematisch ausgewertet (mit etwas auslaendischen Umfragenergebnissen garniert) und legt in Mosaic seine deprimierenden Schlussfolgerungen vor:

It’s unlikely that a change in Israeli actions will help dampen the situation. A half-century of Israeli restraint at the Temple Mount, for example, hasn’t convinced Palestinians that there is no plan to replace the mosques with a Third Temple.

(…)

In any such effort, the Arab countries with the greatest stake in preserving stability and preventing the further ascendancy of radical Islamic forces in their neighborhood might have a refreshingly constructive role to play (especially Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia). So might the United States and Europe, which have both an interest in cooling fevers and various diplomatic, political, and financial levers at their disposal. Though Palestinians possess a remarkable capacity to form their own, independent perception of the world around them, they are not immune to the consequences of their actions or to the changing incentives they face. If the U.S. and other Western powers were to begin vociferously condemning violence initiated by Palestinians, to penalize the PA and Hamas until attacks stop, and to ensure that under no circumstances will gains, diplomatic or otherwise, accrue from them, this, too, might exercise a meliorating effect over time.

Tja, schoen waer;s , wenn der Westen einsehen wuerde, dass durch die Unterstuetzung der Palaestinenser nur deren Realitaetsverweigerung befoerdert und jede friedliche Loesung torpediert wird.

Stattdessen erleben wir, dass die EU eine „Kauft nicht beim Siedler“ Kampagne startet, die gesamte demokratische Partei in den USA die Verantwortung fuer den fehlenden Frieden immer noch Israel zuschiebt, und die westlichen Medien dem Schema „Israel = Taeter, Palaestinenser = Opfer“ verhaftet bleiben.

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